Obama, Virginia, and the South
There is a thought provoking post up at Free Republic (watch your comments - Free Republic is not so free and you could be banned)
A July 27 Washington Post analysis pointed out the actual numbers involved in a Barack Obama victory in some of the Southern states. These numbers make it very clear that it is all but impossible. We will hear over and over about how Obama will be competitive in some Southern states and Virginia will always be mentioned. Nevertheless, here’s the truth: In order to win Virginia he has to
A) hold ALL the White votes John Kerry got in Virginia. THIS ALONE IS A GAME ENDER, but there’s more;
B) He has to increase the Black turn out by 30%
C) He has to get 95% of the Black vote.
While A is already is a serious threat to Obama’s plan, B and C present equally daunting and dangerous ground to build a dream of victory on. Read it All
I noticed that Gov Kaine never mentioned Obama as he visited SWVA a few times in recent weeks. I give him a little credit for saving his breath. Check this comment from the article:
I’ve noticed that locally Mark Warner supporters are not putting up Obama signs in the vicinity of his signs. It is almost as if they think Obama will hurt him and from what I’ve seen going door to door that is true. I expect Mark Warner to suffer a fall off in state support after speaking at the Democrat convention. Right now he is riding high with a significant amount of conservatives who don’t really know Mark Warner outside of the media which has been covering for him.
This race isn’t over provided some ads start running up until election day.
6 posted on Sunday, August 17, 2008 9:12:47 AM by Maelstorm