10-25-06 Survey USA
George Allen 49
James H Jim 46
United States Senator
from Virginia, incumbent Republican George Allen continues to cling to a narrow
lead in his race against Democrat challenger Jim Webb, according to a SurveyUSA
poll of 613 Likely Virginia Voters conducted exclusively for WUSA-TV in
Today, it's Allen 49%,
Webb 46%, within the poll's margin of sampling error. SurveyUSA has polled the
race 5 times since August. Allen has led by 3 points on 3 occasions, led by 5
points once and led by 6 points once.
Today, Allen leads by
14 among males; Webb leads by 9 among females. Allen leads by 15 among white
voters. Webb leads by 62 points among black voters. Blacks made up 14% of likely
voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model.
blacks vote in larger numbers, the Democrat benefits. If blacks vote in smaller
numbers, the Republican benefits. 90% of Republicans vote Republican. 90% of
Democrats vote Democrat.
Independents, there is movement to Webb.
In SurveyUSA's most recent poll, on 9/29, Webb trailed by
7 among Independents. Today he leads by 13, a 20-point swing. There is movement to Allen among the most educated
voters. There is movement to Webb among the least educated voters.
Allen's lead is the largest it has ever been in rural areas. Allen's lead is the
smallest it has ever been in suburban areas.