Polls – The Opinions
We all wondered how the Webbheads would counter the latest Mason Dixon poll showing Sen Allen leading by 16. The facts of the poll show Allen leading by 16. The opinions are saying it is closer. I agree that it is closer. I believe Allen enjoys a solid 10-12 point lead. This poll showed a huge 20% of voters undecided. If that 20% are the key, then Jim Webb must capture what...8 of 10 undecided voters to make this close. I know that wont happen, they know that wont happen, and Larry Sabato knows that wont happen. Is that 20% number accurate? Well the last Survey USA poll showed only 3% undecided. The last Zogby Interactive showed 5% undecided. The Zogby Telephone poll showed 15% undecided. If we average those polls we have 10.75% undecided. If that holds true Jim Webb must carry all of the undecided voters at the present time to make it close. Could that happen? I guess it could but it is very doubtful.
Another point is that all these current polls are pretty consistent on Allen's lead at around 10 points with the Mason Dixon as the exception showing 16. The undecided numbers range from 3 to 20 percent. I have always looked at consistency in polling numbers and we are not seeing that yet in the undecided category.
My final thoughts on this are: Sen Allen is a strong campaigner and the money will continue to poor in. He will campaign hard in all parts of the state. He started early and will continue to work hard to win. He has already been to SWVA a few times and is returning to Lee and Wise county in a few days. I like that. People here like that. Jim Webb is in trouble folks. His campaign consists of live blogs on Kos and weenie of the week emails. He will not fund raise and the money is not coming in. No tv ads, no radio, no newspapers. Winning an election is hard work and so far, as my grandfather used to say, "That dog wont hunt." Remember the failed nutroots slogan "Where in the world is George Allen?" They are not asking that now are they!
Update- Here is the Red Stater's take. CR and I share the same views. F. T. Rea has his thoughts at Slantblog. Mr Rea is asking where is the money? I think most people are asking where is Webb? We are right back to that dog wont hunt. He also brings up the other talking point about Jim Webb. Just what the hell does he stand for? There is no detailed plan. He offers that same tired democratic rhetoric:We don't have the answers or a plan - But Bush is wrong. That is not going to work.